Earlier this week, the Boston Red Sox finalized a one-year, $21.05 million deal with right-handed starting pitcher, matching the amount he would have received had the Los Angeles Dodgers extended him a qualifying offer. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the agreement also includes up to $2.5 million in performance-based incentives.
Originally drafted by the Dodgers out of Vanderbilt, a renowned pitching program, in 2015, Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter. Following his recovery, he rapidly ascended through the minor leagues and debuted in the majors in 2017. By May 2018, Buehler had cemented his place in the Dodgers’ starting rotation. Between 2018 and 2021, he earned two All-Star selections, two top-10 Cy Young finishes, and posted a stellar 39-13 record with a 2.82 ERA, good for a 146 ERA+.
However, after missing the 2023 season due to a second Tommy John surgery, Buehler’s return to the mound revealed diminished velocity and movement on his fastball. Despite his decline, the Dodgers entrusted him with key starts in the postseason, including Game 3 of the NLDS (vs. Padres), NLCS (vs. Mets), and the World Series (vs. Yankees). His most iconic moment came in Game 5 of the World Series, where he secured the save with a dominant one-inning performance, striking out two, including Alex Verdugo, to clinch the championship.
The Dodgers chose not to extend a qualifying offer to Buehler, possibly to avoid limiting his free-agent options or out of concern he might accept. The Red Sox, however, had no such reservations. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has been aggressive this offseason in bolstering the pitching staff, acquiring Garrett Crochet in a trade with the White Sox, and signing lefty Patrick Sandoval to a two-year, $18.25 million deal. Sandoval, like Buehler, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is expected to join the team after the All-Star break.
As of now, Boston’s rotation projects to feature Crochet, Tanner Houck, Buehler, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford, with Lucas Giolito also vying for a spot as he recovers from his own Tommy John surgery. This approach aligns with Boston’s familiarity in handling pitchers in recovery, as seen in their past experiences with James Paxton and Liam Hendricks. Buehler essentially replaces Nick Pivetta, who declined Boston’s qualifying offer and remains unsigned, though the San Francisco Giants have shown interest in him.
For Buehler, the $21 million “pillow contract” offers a chance to reestablish himself as a frontline starter, reminiscent of the pitcher who opened five Game 1s during his Dodgers career. His addition provides the Red Sox with a power arm as they prepare to compete in the ultra-competitive AL East.
Moreover, Buehler’s presence in the Red Sox rotation could revive the storied rivalry with the Yankees, particularly when he takes the mound in the Bronx in front of a hostile crowd. Even if his performance on the field falls short, reigniting one of baseball’s greatest rivalries might make this investment worthwhile for Boston.
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