When the Houston Astros acquired Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade, it seemed like the Alex Bregman era in Houston was coming to an end. Their subsequent signing of Christian Walker made it feel even more certain that Bregman would be playing for a new team in 2025.
Now, more than a month later, Bregman remains unsigned, and with few aggressive suitors, the Astros are still in the mix to bring him back. Making room for him would require some roster adjustments—potentially even shifting Jose Altuve to the outfield—but keeping their star third baseman would undoubtedly strengthen the team.
If the Astros manage to pull off the unexpected and re-sign Bregman despite how this offseason has played out, it will almost certainly lead to the departure of three key players ahead of the 2026 season.
3) Victor Caratini will find more money elsewhere if the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman
The Astros quietly boast one of the best catcher tandems in the league. Yainer Diaz has already emerged as one of the top catchers in baseball, while Victor Caratini remains an underrated and valuable backup. Caratini was so productive last season that he saw action not only behind the plate but also at first base and designated hitter.
In 87 games—66 of them starts—Caratini posted a .269/.336/.408 slash line with eight home runs and 30 RBIs. His strong offensive performance, highlighted by a 113 OPS+, was complemented by his solid defense as a switch-hitting catcher.
Ideally, the Astros would re-sign Caratini when his contract expires after the 2025 season. However, if Bregman returns, financial flexibility will be limited, making it likely that Caratini will seek more playing time and a bigger contract than Houston can offer.
2) The Astros will try to find a taker for Lance McCullers Jr. if they re-sign Alex Bregman
Before the 2021 season, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85 million extension to stay with the Astros through 2026. At the time, the deal made sense, as McCullers had proven to be a dependable presence in Houston’s rotation. His first year under the extension was a success, but injuries have severely limited his availability since then.
The 31-year-old made only eight regular-season starts in 2022, followed by three appearances in the postseason. He has not pitched in an MLB game since and has missed the last two full seasons due to injury. With Opening Day 2025 approaching, he remains unlikely to be ready.
If McCullers eventually returns and performs well, the Astros will face a tough decision. While he is a valuable arm when healthy, he is set to earn $17 million in 2026—on a team that could be financially constrained. Given Houston’s depth in starting pitching, including Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, and Hayden Wesneski, the Astros may not need him.
Rather than committing $17 million to McCullers, Houston could look to shed payroll, making it easier to retain Bregman and potentially strengthen other areas of the roster.
1) Alex Bregman re-signing likely means Framber Valdez’s days in Houston are numbered
Here’s the big question: If the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman, how likely is it that they also keep Framber Valdez? While an argument can be made that Valdez, as a true ace, is the more valuable player to retain, owner Jim Crane has made it clear that he’s only willing to spend so much. If Houston commits to Bregman, it likely means letting Valdez walk.
Losing Valdez would be a significant setback, as he has firmly established himself as the team’s ace. This past season, he posted a stellar 2.91 ERA across 28 starts and 176.1 innings. He has finished in the top 10 of AL Cy Young voting three years in a row and in the top 11 in four of the last five. Since becoming a full-time starter, he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League, delivering clutch performances in the postseason as well.
While parting ways with Valdez would be difficult, the Astros have a history of letting star players leave, whether in free agency or via trade. George Springer, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and even Justin Verlander (twice) have all departed when Houston opted not to meet their price tags. They appeared ready to do the same with Bregman before his market stalled.
Valdez is set to hit free agency after the 2025 season, and if he delivers another strong year, he will command a massive contract. If Bregman returns, the Astros may find themselves priced out of Valdez’s market. The good news? Houston has built enough pitching depth to potentially withstand his departure.
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