It appears the Toronto Maple Leafs are preparing to part ways with longtime forward Mitch Marner, with insider Andy Strickland suggesting Marner is expected to leave this offseason.
That potential departure creates a significant vacancy in Toronto’s top-six forward group. Assuming restricted free agent Matthew Knies re-signs, he’s likely to resume his role alongside team captain Auston Matthews. However, with Marner likely gone, the right wing spot becomes a key area of need—and free agent winger Nikolaj Ehlers could be an ideal fit.
Ehlers recently wrapped up a seven-year, $42 million contract with the Winnipeg Jets. He posted a strong campaign in 2024, tallying 24 goals and 63 points over 69 games. While those numbers don’t match Marner’s 102-point output, Ehlers brings the kind of speed and offensive instincts that would complement Matthews and Knies well.
Drafted ninth overall in 2014, Ehlers could potentially elevate his game even further playing alongside an elite center like Matthews, while also gaining the spotlight that comes with wearing the Maple Leafs jersey.
What Would It Cost to Sign Ehlers?
Ehlers’ previous contract had an average annual value (AAV) of $6 million, a solid figure for his consistent production. However, he’s expected to seek a raise.
Some projections, such as those from The Athletic, estimate his next deal could land around six years and $8.1 million per season. In a recent mailbag, The Athletic’s James Mirtle suggested Ehlers could command closer to $9 million annually.
A six-year, $8.5 million AAV deal—totaling around $54 million—could be a reasonable compromise. Although the Leafs might prefer a shorter term, extending the contract could help manage the cap hit.
Concerns to Weigh
While generally reliable, Ehlers did struggle with injuries in the 2022–23 season. At 29, a six-year contract would carry him through to age 35, raising concerns about potential declines in performance or health over time.
Mirtle also questioned the fit, suggesting Ehlers may not align with the playing style the Leafs’ coaching staff and management envision. He even expressed doubt about whether Ehlers would thrive in Toronto’s high-pressure environment.
Injuries and age-related regression are always risks with long-term deals, and the media spotlight in Toronto can be a deterrent for some free agents.
Still, given the relatively thin free-agent market this summer, taking a calculated risk on Ehlers might be a smart move. He checks several boxes for the Leafs—a skilled, fast, and proven top-line winger—without the financial commitment typically required for marquee names.
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