BYU has finally suffered their first football loss of the season. While many anticipated this would happen eventually, seeing their “perfect season” slip away against a mediocre Kansas team is a hard pill to swallow, and I understand why.
The Cougars are now 9-1 with two regular-season games left. Though they likely won’t remain in the top 10 after this week, their path to a College Football Playoff berth is still more straightforward than it might seem.
The loss to Kansas was the result of avoidable mistakes that led to missed opportunities. Two potential touchdown drives were stalled by poor decision-making. Whether it was play-calling from the booth or an audible by Jake Retzlaff, Saturday’s game was one BYU could have easily won.
A single touchdown on either of those red zone drives would have probably sealed a victory for the Cougars.
But don’t panic—the season is far from over, and BYU still has a chance to make the playoff. Here’s a look at their potential paths to a spot in the postseason:
Path 1: Win the Conference Championship
This is the most direct route to the playoff. It all comes down to winning the games ahead of them. The Cougars need to focus solely on what’s in front of them, like a dog following a trail of kibble.
What’s ahead? A tough road game against an Arizona State team that’s on a hot streak, led by Cam Skattebo. Before Coach Kalani Sitake can even begin to think about a conference championship, the Cougars need to get past the Sun Devils. Arizona State proved their toughness with a win over Kansas State last weekend. If BYU wins on Saturday, their path becomes a lot clearer.
If they win out the rest of the regular season, BYU will likely face Colorado, a team that has the college football world behind it. Beating the Buffs and Coach Prime would likely lock up a playoff spot for BYU.
But if they lose that championship game… well…
Path 2: Hope the CFP Committee Lets BYU In
This is the less desirable option, given the committee’s consistent skepticism toward BYU. The loss to Kansas gives the committee all the ammunition it needs to overlook Sitake’s team.
If BYU loses to Arizona State or Houston, they will have to win the conference title for any shot at the playoff. Even then, an undefeated Army team might take a spot, leaving BYU and the Big 12 on the outside looking in.
However, if the Cougars finish 11-1 and lose a close game to Colorado in the conference championship, they could still gain enough respect to sneak into the playoff as the 11th or 12th team. Colorado, with all the momentum behind Coach Prime, would likely enter the championship as the favorite. If BYU puts up a strong fight in a close loss, they could make a case for a spot.
But with each passing week, the road to the playoff is getting steeper. If the Cougars barely get past Houston, suffer a blowout loss to Arizona State or Colorado, or anything in between, their playoff chances could vanish.
The bottom line? Win, and you’re in, Cougars. The ball is in your court.
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