The Philadelphia Phillies boast star power, but concerns arise when those players don’t meet expectations. Unfortunately, Trea Turner’s first two seasons with the team haven’t gone as anticipated.
While Turner’s numbers aren’t terrible, after signing a massive $300 million, 11-year deal, the expectation was for him to maintain his status as one of the best shortstops in MLB. Before joining Philadelphia, Turner had a 140 OPS+ but has posted 110 and 124 OPS+ in his two seasons with the Phillies.
Although his performance has been decent, it’s fair to say he hasn’t lived up to the hype. Still, it’s hard to discount a player like Turner, who has consistently proven his ability to perform at a high level, and two subpar seasons won’t erase that.
However, if he doesn’t improve by Year 3 and fails to perform in the postseason, the Phillies might need to start worrying. At 31, Turner still has nearly a decade left on his contract.
Zachary D. Rymer from Bleacher Report foresees a potential issue, predicting that by 2027, Turner’s deal could become one of the worst in baseball.
Rymer writes, “Trea Turner’s 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies has already started underwhelming. In 2023, his bat didn’t really heat up until an August standing ovation. He was steadier in 2024, but missed time due to a hamstring injury. That injury would be easier to overlook if his baserunning didn’t take a hit, but it did. He posted the slowest sprint speed of his career and, after stealing 30 bases in 2023, was just 19-for-23 in stolen bases.”
By 2027, Turner will be 34, and as Rymer notes, there are signs that he’s slowing down.
When Turner is at his peak, he excels at the small aspects of the game—stealing bases, hitting home runs, getting on base. He’s a solid player overall, despite being below average defensively. But if he doesn’t maintain a complete game over the next decade, the Phillies could find themselves in a tough situation.
The hope is that the team wins a World Series in the next few years, which would help justify the contract, even if it only results in one championship.
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