The Philadelphia Phillies secured 95 wins and their first National League East title since 2011 last year. Despite being eliminated by the New York Mets in the NLDS, they remain a formidable team in the division, boasting key players like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Kyle Schwarber. However, one significant investment could potentially backfire in the future.
Following the 2023 season, the Phillies re-signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. In 2024, he performed admirably, posting a 14-8 record with a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts, striking out 197 batters. But concerns are emerging about Nola’s future as a consistent innings-eater.
Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report predicts that by 2027, the Phillies may regret this deal. Rymer points to Nola’s struggles with the long ball, noting his declining ground ball rate over the past few seasons. While there’s no immediate threat, the question remains how much longer Nola can maintain his current workload. Since 2018, he ranks third in pitches thrown and first in innings, but his durability may be tested soon, as he’s yet to experience any major breakdowns.
Although Nola remains effective, he’s not striking out as many batters as he once did and continues to struggle with home runs, which could be worrying for the Phillies. By 2027, he will be 34 years old and still owed $98.3 million for the remaining four years of his contract. While the team hopes Nola can remain effective, his decline could start soon, and Rymer’s prediction may eventually prove true.
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