If you just compare certain defensive metrics, the Vikings’ matchup with the Cowboys doesn’t appear all that different from last week’s game against the Commanders in terms of the challenge facing J.J. McCarthy.
Washington sits 30th in passing yards allowed per game, 32nd in opponent EPA per dropback, and 29th in pass-defense DVOA. Dallas ranks 32nd, 30th, and 30th in those same categories. By the numbers, both teams have been among the league’s weakest pass defenses all season.
However, when you factor in the broader context, it’s obvious that McCarthy will be dealing with a very different test this week. For starters, the stage is far bigger. A noon kickoff at home against a struggling Commanders team is nothing like playing on Sunday Night Football inside AT&T Stadium with the Cowboys fighting to stay in the playoff race. The atmosphere and the national spotlight will be on an entirely different level.
There’s also the matter of the opposing offense. While Washington’s attack was lifeless in Minnesota’s 31-0 win, the Cowboys boast one of the NFL’s most explosive units. They lead the league in total yards per game and rank third in scoring and fifth in EPA per play. Dak Prescott and his weapons are going to produce, even against a Vikings defense having a strong year. That means McCarthy and the Vikings’ offense will need to keep up to have any chance at an upset.
McCarthy made clear progress against Washington, but it’s tricky to evaluate that outing because so much tilted in his favor. Minnesota played from ahead nearly the entire afternoon, relied heavily on the ground game, and asked McCarthy to emphasize quick, short throws. Before the final kneel-down, the Vikings went 6-for-10 on third down, yet only two of those situations were 3rd-and-10 or longer. They controlled the game script from start to finish.
That probably won’t be the case on Sunday night. Dallas’s defense still has major issues, even with Quinnen Williams giving them a disruptive force inside after the midseason trade. But their offense forces opponents into shootouts. The Cowboys have been involved in five games this year where both teams scored at least 27 points — tied with the Bengals for the most such games in 2025.
With the lights bright and the pressure high, McCarthy faces a significant proving ground. Can he excel when the game isn’t dictated on his terms? Can he consistently connect with Justin Jefferson? Minnesota won’t be able to rely on the run game and a short-passing script to grind out a win at AT&T Stadium. That’s what makes this matchup such a compelling measure of how far their young quarterback has come.