Doumbia may have found the net just three times this season – with one of those, against Middlesbrough, appearing to be awarded to him despite the ball clearly deflecting off Luca Kjerrumgaard on its way in – but the hierarchy in attack has become clear.
The Mali international has started nine of Watford’s last 10 matches, missing only the trip to Derby County after recently returning from the November international window.
Across his last five appearances, it has consistently been strike partner Kjerrumgaard who has made way first, with Doumbia completing the full 90 minutes in three of those games.
However, he is set to miss the entirety of the next four fixtures. Even if Mali are eliminated from AFCON following their final group game on December 29, a return for the New Year’s Day clash with Birmingham City would still seem optimistic. Should Mali progress deep into the tournament, Doumbia could be unavailable for as many as seven matches.
While the absence may not feel long in calendar terms, Watford face a demanding run of five games in just over two weeks. With Gracia favouring a two-man forward line, the question is how he manages that spell with only Kjerrumgaard and Vivaldo Semedo available as natural centre-forwards.
As it stands
Following the summer window, Valon Behrami acknowledged that Watford had entered the season with three centre-forward “projects”, and that assessment has played out so far.
Kjerrumgaard is currently joint-top scorer with six goals (arguably seven) and has demonstrated real quality in the box, particularly with his finishes against Middlesbrough, Derby and Norwich City.
However, his overall game can be overly courteous. The Danish forward would benefit from adopting some of Doumbia’s physical edge and willingness to battle centre-backs, who too often appear to enjoy a comfortable afternoon when matched up against Kjerrumgaard.
His brief appearance off the bench against Oxford United in October showed how effective his link-up play can be, but for now he remains more composed than combative.
With Doumbia absent, Kjerrumgaard will need to raise his level in the coming weeks, particularly if Semedo continues as his partner in a 4-4-2 system.
While that formation would not be surprising against Stoke City on Saturday, Gracia will surely be wary of overloading two young forwards during a period featuring three matches in six days after Christmas. Neither striker regularly completes 90 minutes, and both can struggle with the physical demands of leading the line.
Semedo, realistically, has yet to truly impose himself and may ultimately benefit from a January loan if Watford are able to recruit an upgrade. For now, though, he could find himself starting by necessity.
Roll it back
Earlier in the campaign, Paulo Pezzolano also opted for a front two, but with a different dynamic – pairing a physical presence with the lively Nestory Irankunda.
That role appeared to suit Irankunda well initially, as he thrived on loose balls between the lines and drove forward with energy.
Since that explosive start, however, the Australian has struggled to maintain momentum. Long-haul international travel on three occasions since August, disrupting rhythm and causing jetlag, has not helped, nor has his recent return to Australia for personal reasons.
In truth, Irankunda is probably now where many expected him to be pre-season. Expectations had been tempered, yet his early performances raised the bar beyond what was realistic.
At 19, he remains a raw but gifted talent, showing flashes of quality while needing strong guidance on the training ground to develop consistency.
That guidance will need to be carefully balanced, as his confidence appears fragile. The recent game against Sheffield Wednesday was telling, with Irankunda seemingly forcing moments of brilliance and losing his way as a result.
He is likely to start at some point over the festive period, but he is no longer the immediate solution he briefly appeared to be.
Change the shape
Even without the current limitations, this may have been the moment for Gracia to rethink his system. Dropping one striker for an additional midfielder could provide balance.
Watford have often struggled for control in a 4-4-2, especially at Vicarage Road, where opponents are content to exploit the space left in midfield on the counter.
Adding an extra holding midfielder could free Imran Louza to roam more naturally. Louza already drifts wide or arrives late at the edge of the box, but doing so within a two-man midfield has been part of the problem. In a midfield three, those movements could become an asset.
Rocco Vata could have been an option further forward, but despite progressing well from a hamstring injury, he is unlikely to be available for any of the upcoming fixtures.
Edo Kayembe is also away at AFCON, while Othmane Maamma should continue operating out wide. That still leaves alternatives.
Giorgi Chakvetadze could be deployed centrally as a number 10, offering creativity across the pitch and linking play with the full-backs and wingers.
The concept is appealing, though it has rarely worked convincingly in practice, and easing him back to full sharpness from the left flank may remain the wiser choice.
Tom Ince could also fill that role intermittently, while Moussa Sissoko has been used there previously – even if his time as a regular starter appears to be drawing to a close.
Trust the youth
Gracia has increasingly shown a willingness to look towards Watford’s academy. Leo Ramirez-Espain has been recalled from Yeovil Town to bolster midfield options, while Amin Nabizada is now in contention after committing his future with a new long-term contract.
Nabizada, capable of playing wide or just off the striker, could add attacking depth in the coming weeks, and there are other young forwards within the club.
Tobi Adeyemo, who etched his name into club history nearly three years ago as Watford’s third-youngest goalscorer against Blackpool in January 2023, has featured more regularly for the Under-21s this season after an injury-ravaged spell.
Nickson Okosun, signed from Bohemians last year, has been leading the line for Charlie Daniels’ side. He has the physical profile of a traditional number nine, but there has been no indication so far that Gracia plans to involve him with the first team.