The Philadelphia Phillies made an unexpected move this offseason, signing outfielder to a one-year, $10 million contract. Despite having no prior experience in the role, he is set to become the everyday left fielder, while Brandon Marsh shifts back to center.
The decision has left many fans puzzled, and for good reason. Kepler, like Marsh, is a left-handed hitter who thrives against right-handed pitching but struggles against lefties. Moreover, he doesn’t fit the mold of the power-hitting outfielder the Phillies were reportedly seeking this winter.
Kepler’s 2024 stats paint a concerning picture: a career-low .682 OPS, 91 OPS+, and only eight home runs in 105 games before a knee injury ended his season in September.
“He’s a bounce-back candidate at this stage of his career,” noted Aaron Freeman of The Athletic. “The Phillies are banking on the second-half 2023 version of Kepler, who recorded a 149 OPS+ over 66 games, rather than the below-average hitter plagued by injuries seen in the first half of 2023 (86 OPS+), 2022 (92 OPS+), and 2021 (98 OPS+).”
Kepler’s track record is far from inspiring. In his 10 seasons with the Twins, he posted an OPS+ under 98 in six full campaigns. His standout year was 2019, when he hit 36 home runs with an .855 OPS and 123 OPS+.
With the Phillies likely done pursuing offensive upgrades in free agency, one MLB insider is calling for a bolder approach to address the team’s hitting needs.
MLB insider wants Philadelphia Phillies to trade for this All-Star outfielder
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has expressed skepticism about the Phillies’ decision to sign Max Kepler, pointing to the high price for a player with a career .655 OPS against left-handers and a .237/.318/.429 slash line.
Bowden’s alternative? A bold, franchise-altering trade.
“I’d like to see Philadelphia swing a deal with the [Chicago] White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. and construct an outfield featuring Nick Castellanos in right, Robert in center, and Brandon Marsh in left,” Bowden writes. “Kepler and Johan Rojas could then serve as defensive specialists, with Kepler in right and Rojas in center or left.”
Robert, a 2023 All-Star with 38 home runs that season, has an enticing upside but a history of injuries, which have affected three of his five seasons with Chicago. His performance in 2023 took a noticeable dip, slashing .223/.278/.379 with 14 homers and an 87 OPS+.
For the White Sox, coming off a dismal season with a franchise-record 121 losses and having already traded ace Garrett Crochet, a trade could be appealing. However, Robert’s contract complicates matters. He’s set to earn $15 million in 2025, with team options for 2026 and 2027 at $20 million each.
The financial implications are daunting for the Phillies. According to Fangraphs, their projected 2025 luxury tax payroll is $307.6 million, already surpassing the $301 million top threshold. Any additional salary would trigger a 110% tax on every dollar over the limit, making such a trade a significant financial gamble.
Leave a Reply